bookbashuk #399 - Naval developments and the South China Sea chess game
#399 - Naval developments and the South China Sea chess game
Ren Zhong felt very relieved to hand over the early research of the anti-missile system to Professor Qian. In this field, no one is more capable of undertaking such an important task than Professor Qian.
Of course, anti-missile systems and submarine-launched missiles cannot be successful in a day or two. Therefore, Ren Zhong does not intend to reserve any submarine-launched missile interfaces on the Qin-class nuclear submarine. There is no point in reserving this now. The most important task of the Qin-class is to attack the opponent's naval forces, to put it bluntly, it is an attack nuclear submarine, not a strategic nuclear submarine.
Therefore, torpedoes are the Qin-class's strongest means of attack. So many torpedo launchers are reserved on the Qin-class in preparation for assembling 4-5 Qin-class nuclear submarines to ambush and attack an aircraft carrier fleet at a critical moment!
It should be known that the Stingray-class attack nuclear submarine is equipped with a total of 8 torpedo launchers, 6 533mm launchers in the bow, and 2 480mm launchers in the stern that can launch MK57 short torpedoes. The most important reason Ren Zhong retained these torpedo tubes was to launch a saturated torpedo attack at one time!
If it is 5 Qin-class nuclear submarines, then 30 heavy torpedoes can be launched at one time!
If it can approach the aircraft carrier fleet, the chance of the opponent's aircraft carrier surviving is very slim if such a number of torpedoes are released at one time in a short period of time.
Therefore, Ren Zhong's improvement direction for the Qin-class nuclear submarine is mainly stealth, and then torpedo performance. The current JK-1 torpedo with a range of 10 kilometers is still too weak. In the future, JK-2 should achieve at least 25 kilometers or even 30 kilometers, and the speed should be faster, and the target search method should be stronger.
But this requires more technological breakthroughs, the first of which is the underwater detection technology.
In this regard, the main world has ready-made cases, such as the H/SJD-9 hull sonar, which is a high-power, fully digital multi-functional medium-frequency active/passive sonar. It adopts a newly designed cylindrical array, which is 1.5 meters high and 2.5 meters in diameter. It has multi-mode and multi-beam omnidirectional detection capabilities. With active straight-line propagation, the detection distance of H/SJD-9 exceeds 10 nautical miles, and the detection distance in the convergence zone mode can reach 20 nautical miles, and the seabed reflection mode can reach 15 to 20 nautical miles! If such a sonar can be realized in the Bright Sword world, it can basically predict the enemy from a hundred miles away and kill the enemy invisibly.
The main world's first domestically produced low-frequency passive towed array sonar SJG-206 has a total array length of 300 meters, a detection distance of 80 kilometers, and a detection depth of 1000 meters. It can track 5 targets simultaneously. After being modified, this array can also be launched from torpedo launchers and re-expanded and assembled when necessary to achieve long-distance seabed detection.
In addition to anti-submarine patrol aircraft, this is basically the strongest maritime early warning method. Although the frequency agile radar equipped on anti-submarine patrol aircraft can search 360°, the detection distance for submarine periscopes and snorkels is 15 nautical miles and 36 nautical miles respectively under sea state 3. But for the Qin-class nuclear submarine, this is basically ineffective, because it does not need a periscope or snorkel at all. Now the communication buoy can be retracted and released. When retracted, the Qin-class nuclear submarine lurking in the deep sea of 400 meters is completely invisible in front of the anti-submarine patrol aircraft.
Ren Zhong knew that there was basically no hope of catching up with the rogue eagle's more than a dozen aircraft carriers and aircraft carrier battle groups in just two or three decades, and there was no need to spend huge sums of money to build such an offensive battle group.
To maintain our globalization interests, we only need to have the ability to destroy any enemy. We don't necessarily have to do it on the surface of the sea, we can also do it through the seabed.
Therefore, nuclear attack submarines are the pinnacle of asymmetric warfare. The price and manpower of a 4-5 nuclear submarine attack detachment are far lower than an aircraft carrier battle group, but if it can complete the combat mission of destroying an aircraft carrier battle group, it is completely equivalent to an aircraft carrier battle group's combat power and more.
In theory, a nuclear submarine carries more than 20 heavy torpedoes. Ren Zhong's new goal for the Qin-class nuclear submarine is 30, which can launch 5 rounds of saturated attacks!
The current Dalian, Jiangnan Shipyard and Yangcheng Shipyard all have more than 10,000-ton die-forging hydraulic presses that can undertake the manufacturing task, so each shipyard has taken out two slipways to start construction secretly!
Dalian is the fastest. When manufacturing the first ship, it has already started the second ship. They have made a lot of profit from ro-ro transport ships and do not lack the money for nuclear submarines, so they directly pulled the plan to the maximum. As soon as the design drawing came out, the first 001 nuclear submarine started construction, and the second ship entered the preparation stage. When the first ship is launched for sea trials and there are no problems, the second ship will be laid down!
That is to say, in about three months, the second Qin-class nuclear submarine will be launched, and then it will be commissioned in six months.
The current problem is that after the vigorous development of the first five-year plan, the talents cultivated by the Naval Academy are still not keeping up with the speed of the Navy's launch.
Due to the outbreak of the Korean War, the Navy's plan was adjusted to 12 ships/year for two years. This year, the Jianghai-class destroyer has completed the original plan of 30 ships. With the addition of 2 Fletcher-class destroyers, the Navy has 32 destroyers. Then, the 2 6000-ton Luhu-class ships completed this year will be commissioned after sea trials, and then at least 4 Luhu-class ships will be commissioned every year.
Plus the new two amphibious assault ships.
The demand for naval talent is more than 10,000 people, which makes the training of naval talent stretched. Even if two new naval schools—Jiangnan Maritime Non-commissioned Officer School and South China Marine Technology College—are temporarily expanded, and they are fully committed to training naval professionals, this is still somewhat unable to keep up with the speed of the Navy's dumpling production, let alone the addition of submarine majors now.
In the future, at least a dozen more ships will be commissioned every year, requiring thousands of naval personnel to operate these ships.
It can be said that the Navy is in pain and happiness. The rapidly expanding scale of ships is certainly very refreshing, but the fact that there are new recruits on the ships makes Li Changxing, the commander-in-chief of the Navy, headache.
After all, the Navy is too professional. It is not combat effectiveness to just start the ship. The combat of destroyers is completely different from the combat of the land army. Just the configuration of so many captains and first mates has made Li Changxing rack his brains, and even had to specially approve a group of overseas Chinese to return to the country to serve in the military. They have worked on rogue eagle or John Bull ships. After returning to the country, they started as first mates, on the one hand, assisting our naval captains who have no experience, and on the other hand, the organization is also inspecting them, hoping to promote a group of new captains from them.
If we talk about combat power on paper, the New Navy of Dongda is already a very large combat force, divided into the First Fleet, Second Fleet, and Third Fleet (North Sea, East Sea, South Sea). Of course, it's not without its uses. After the formation of the three fleets, a large-scale anti-ship missile exercise was organized. A saturation attack of anti-ship missiles directly destroyed a scrapped ten-thousand-ton freighter that was specially purchased as a target ship. The Rogue Eagle's Seventh Fleet very consciously withdrew from the southeast coast.
This brought a smile of reconciliation to both sides of the strait.
In addition, there is no opposition to the eleven-dash line in the South Sea. Following Ren Zhong's suggestion, fifteen islands and reefs were selected along the eleven-dash line for construction, including 11 existing islands and 4 reefs. These include Taiping Island, Zhongye Island, Xiyue Island, Nanwei Island, Beizi Island, Nanzi Island, Yongxing Island, Zhongjian Island, Huangyan Island, as well as Nan'an Reef, Zengmu Ansha, Ban'an Reef, and Meiji Reef.
Of course, this is not something that can be accomplished overnight. In the future, to build these fifteen islands, it is also necessary to develop a great weapon: a ten-thousand-ton trailing suction hopper dredger, with a dredging (sand) capacity of about 10,000 cubic meters per hour. If it is a small border island, building a guard post and basic monitoring equipment, it would take about 3 days on average to create an island.
However, Ren Zhong's idea is not just that. In that direction, at least several large islands must be built to undertake the defense of the South Sea, not only with defensive guard posts, but also with ten-thousand-ton ports, and island airports that can take off and land large transport aircraft and other facilities.
According to geographical distribution, Nanwei Island, Huangyan Island, Taiping Island, Zhongjian Island, and Meiji Reef are now selected as sites for large islands, with the remaining 10 points as auxiliary. In the future, with these military strongholds and large island measures, there will be reliable guarantees for resource development in this sea area.
You should know that the South Sea has a lot of resources. Fishery resources are just the least valuable part of it, and the rich oil and gas resources under the sea are the most promising in the future.
If this deployment is completed, the management of the South Sea can be described as an iron plate, and no one can even think about touching it.
Of course, this is a large project. Ten-thousand-ton trailing suction hopper dredgers need to be developed, and a lot of island-filling technology needs to be researched. In the early stage, according to Ren Zhong's idea, nuclear-powered trailing suction hopper dredgers should be used first, which will be a pilot experiment for future floating nuclear-powered platforms. After all, in the future, trailing suction hopper dredgers will be more meaningful and valuable than the Great Bear's nuclear-powered icebreakers. This ten-thousand-ton trailing suction hopper dredger will have to work for at least ten years to completely revitalize this big game in the South Sea.
At this stage, daily guards are first established on those 11 islands, and then stilt houses are built on those few reefs.
The Third Fleet has now implemented routine patrol and training missions in the South Sea. For the defense of these places, I believe no one dares to test the power of our new destroyers.
The Third Fleet now has ten advanced Jianghai-class destroyers. For the surrounding areas, even one is a great weapon, as they are still at the patrol boat and old transport ship stage.
This is a major event. Although not many people can understand the great significance of it, there is nothing wrong with maintaining the integrity of the territory. Therefore, in this regard, the Third Fleet has also specially established the South Sea Garrison Force, and specially established a marine corps to garrison these places.
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Now, Ren Zhong's blueprint has not yet been fully drawn, and none of them can guess that these places will become several permanent airports that can take off and land fighter jets in the future, turning the South Sea into a safe and controllable place for us.
People today cannot imagine how convenient island building will become when the trailing suction hopper dredger is launched. We will not only select 15 strongholds for construction from a military perspective, but also carry out construction work on any reefs that want to build islands from the perspective of developing South Sea resources in the future.
According to the results of the third resource assessment of the main world, Dongda's oil resources in the traditional area of the South Sea are about 25.5 billion tons, and natural gas resources are about 21 trillion cubic meters, with a total oil and gas resource of about 46.3 billion tons of oil equivalent. This is still the result after a lot of it has been invaded and occupied. If calculated according to the range delimited by the 11-dash line, the oil and gas resource equivalent exceeds 100 billion tons. Even if some resources are not easy to exploit and the cost is high, overall, it is unquestionable that more than 50 billion tons of resources are suitable for development.
Such huge resources are the best gift we can leave to our descendants after the development of land oil and gas resources. According to the domestic oil consumption of 756 million tons in the main world in 2023, the oil and gas resources here alone are enough to consume for nearly 70 years!
Counting these resources, we can get rid of the label of being an oil-poor country.
This is the important significance of Ren Zhong playing this big game in the South Sea.
At present, the four major oil fields of Yanchang, Shengli, Daqing, and Changqing have achieved an annual output of 20 million tons, and are being built on a large scale, preparing to achieve a scale of 50 million tons in the next five-year plan. The oil industry is not only the lifeline of the transportation industry, but also the source of the chemical industry, and is a priority development industry in the country like the steel industry.
Others will worry about what will happen to us after the land oil is exhausted, but for Ren Zhong, this is not a problem at all. After the land oil is exhausted, we can continue to extract offshore oil. In the future, we can completely extract oil in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, East Sea, and South Sea. Now that we have delineated these places, there will be no problem with subsequent sustainable development.
According to the data from the main world's exploration data, we have reserves of more than 180 billion tons in these places. Even if some of the extraction conditions are not very good and the costs are high, there are at least 100 billion tons of exploitable scale. According to the cost accounting of offshore oil extraction in the main world, the extraction cost of oil and gas in several hundred meters of deep sea is significantly higher than that in shallow sea, which may be as high as $60/barrel, while the extraction cost of shallow sea oil fields such as the Persian Gulf is usually less than $10/barrel.
The price of offshore oil extraction in general sea areas is about $40 per barrel. For example, John Bull's cost of extracting oil from the North Sea oil field (oil and gas area with a water depth of 78~158 meters) in the direction of Northern Europe is 30 pounds/barrel.
Of course, this is in 2024, when labor costs are very high in the main world. If we go back to the 2013 era, the cost of John Bull's North Sea Brent crude oil was only 13 pounds per barrel. The cost has doubled in ten years, which is due to both the increase in extraction difficulty and the rapid increase in labor costs.
Therefore, at this stage, Ren Zhong is not prepared to extract offshore oil. Now, the several large oil fields discovered on land are enough to allow Dongda to get rid of the label of being oil-poor. Moreover, in the Western Regions, we still have at least 10 billion tons of oil reserves waiting to be mined, but now the railway has not been completed, and the conditions there are difficult, so for the time being, it will be stored there as reserves.
If one day oil needs to be used as a weapon, then Ren Zhong believes that he can give his competitors a surprise!